M$ 37,615 pool

    The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.

    15%
    chance
    M$ 24,374 pool

    Will the linked market fall to less than 15% for at least 12 hours before March 12th Eastern Time?

    42%
    chance
    M$ 20,187 pool

    Will Dwayne Johnson win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

    7%
    chance
    M$ 9,090 pool

    Will this market have M$10,000 invested by March 10th?

    97%
    chance
    M$ 10,838 pool

    Will this market have M$20,000 invested by March 11th?

    97%
    chance
    M$ 2,436 pool

    Will Dune win in 4 or more categories at the 2022 Academy Awards?

    89%
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    M$ 3,625 pool

    Will the 7-day average of flights tracked on flightradar24 for the first week of March, 2022 exceed the 7-day average of flights for the first week of March, 2020?

    97%
    chance
    M$ 1,562 pool

    What Rotten Tomatoes status will "The Batman" have one week after release?

    M$ 3,205 pool

    A market on Manifold Markets will be a key point in some sort of significant social drama in 2022

    71%
    chance
    M$ 18,136 pool

    Will Russia control Kyiv as of April 2, 2022

    30%
    chance
    M$ 1,950 pool

    If Russia successfully invades Ukraine, will China invade Taiwan by the end of the year?

    9%
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    M$ 596 pool

    Explain market math geometrically.

    M$ 931 pool

    Honourary resolves honorably.

    93%
    chance
    M$ 1,371 pool

    Suggest features.

    M$ 710 pool

    Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?

    20%
    chance
    M$ 550 pool

    At any point before the end of the calendar year 2025, will the CDC or another credible source report that at least 70,000 people die annually from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US?

    52%
    chance
    M$ 550 pool

    What music suggestion will I enjoy listening to the most while coding this week?

    M$ 3,948 pool

    Will I get together with the girl I made out with last weekend?

    24%
    chance
    M$ 520 pool

    Will an ocean be fertilised with at least 50 tonnes of iron, as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2023?

    14%
    chance
    M$ 520 pool

    Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?

    89%
    chance
    M$ 3,432 pool

    Will at least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22?

    43%
    chance
    M$ 2,841 pool

    Will Putin be the leader of Russia during the entire 2022?

    71%
    chance
    M$ 501 pool

    In what year will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?

    M$ 500 pool

    How many migrants will die or go missing in the Mediterranean in 2022?

    M$ 500 pool

    What will be the total number of fish that Fish Welfare Initiative (FWI) claims to have helped by 2023?

    M$ 500 pool

    What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?

    M$ 2,697 pool

    Conditional on NATO declaring a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine, will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat in 2022?

    21%
    chance
    M$ 1,574 pool

    Which betting system will Manifold be using on April 1st?

    M$ 2,005 pool

    Will the Russian Ruble (RUB) fall below $0.005 by March 25?

    39%
    chance
    M$ 5,436 pool

    Xi Jinping will successfully mediate a talk between Vladimir Puti and at least 5 NATO leaders by March 15th, 2022.

    7%
    chance
    M$ 267 pool

    Will this market be the largest of all markets tagged whale bait at the end of the day on March 31st, 2022?

    51%
    chance
    M$ 8,672 pool

    Who will be the administrator of the AstralCodexTen Discord server on January 1, 2023?

    M$ 697 pool

    Indian Elections: Will the incumbent BJP win the Uttar Pradesh state election?

    95%
    chance
    M$ 354 pool

    Will there be a peace deal between Russia and the Ukraine by March 13, 2022.

    6%
    chance
    M$ 534 pool

    Will any other country openly join Russia - Ukraine conflict in March or April 2022?

    37%
    chance
    M$ 929 pool

    Will the Belarussian constitutional referendum on 27 February 2022 see the adoption of a new constitution?

    97%
    chance
    M$ 4,535 pool

    Will Russia control Lviv by April 1st?

    15%
    chance
    M$ 1,836 pool

    Will Manifold Markets implement a dark mode by the ides of March 2022

    58%
    chance
    M$ 3,019 pool

    Will Mantic Markets have over $1M in revenue by 2023?

    33%
    chance
    M$ 700 pool

    Will masks still be required on ordinary passenger domestic flights in the United States on March 20th 2022?

    59%
    chance
    M$ 642 pool

    Will Manifold Markets allow you to bet in terms of probabilities instead of M$ amounts before 2022-05-01?

    26%
    chance
    M$ 2,784 pool

    Is it true that Ukraine has shot down two Russian IL-76 transport planes?

    30%
    chance
    M$ 400 pool

    Are there more doors than wheels in the world?

    10%
    chance
    M$ 861 pool

    8. Will there be a major flare-up (worse than in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict in 2022?

    20%
    chance
    M$ 3,648 pool

    Will a nuclear bomb detonate by April 1st 2022?

    4%
    chance
    M$ 250 pool

    What will be my favorite version of Bach's "Goldberg Variations" submitted here by the end of March?

    M$ 2,578 pool

    Will I have lost twenty or more pounds by Apr. 24, 2022?

    74%
    chance
    M$ 647 pool

    Will a big conflict occur in the West Bank soon?

    26%
    chance
    M$ 3,243 pool

    Will 1=1 on January 1st 2023?

    98%
    chance
    M$ 453 pool

    Will Joe Biden's approval rating be greater than or equal to 40% on March 13th, 2022, 11:59 GMT?

    93%
    chance
    M$ 574 pool

    Will I finish "Gödel, Escher, Bach" by 2023?

    68%
    chance
    M$ 160 pool

    Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump be elected President in 2024?

    56%
    chance
    M$ 1,192 pool

    Will Scott Alexander review Vaclav Havel's "The Power Of The Powerless"?

    13%
    chance
    M$ 3,032 pool

    13. Will Ethereum be above $5k at the end of 2022?

    42%
    chance
    M$ 483 pool

    Will the GOP control the US Senate in 2023?

    72%
    chance
    M$ 3,500 pool

    Will Manifold's developers agree with me that the dynamic parimutuel cost function should be changed?

    78%
    chance
    M$ 154 pool

    Is there or will there be a successfully conducted "range" market on Manifold?

    97%
    chance
    M$ 750 pool

    Will the US open its borders to Ukrainian citizens before July 1st 2022?

    27%
    chance
    M$ 262 pool

    Will we have WWIII before January 1st 2023?

    48%
    chance
    M$ 1,597 pool

    Will Power of the Dog win Best Picture at the Oscars?

    45%
    chance
    M$ 284 pool

    Will this market have at least M$62,831 invested into it by Tau Day (June 28th)?

    80%
    chance
    M$ 163 pool

    Will Russian stock exchange reopen by March 12th?

    40%
    chance
    M$ 1,142 pool

    Will Joe Biden's approval rating be greater than or equal to 42% on March 13th, 2022, 11:59 GMT?

    59%
    chance
    M$ 135 pool

    If there's a nuclear war by the end of 2022, will I die?

    29%
    chance
    M$ 134 pool

    Will Manifold Markets developers acknowledge that having separate money pools for YES and NO is a problem before May 1?

    95%
    chance
    M$ 6,129 pool

    Will Russia control the majority of the Ukraine by January 1st, 2023?

    37%
    chance
    M$ 2,086 pool

    Will Runes be the top-performing archetype in the alchemy portion of the Neon Dynasty Set Championship?

    20%
    chance
    M$ 5,195 pool

    Will more than 5,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War this year?

    99%
    chance
    M$ 746 pool

    Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?

    86%
    chance
    M$ 465 pool

    If I review Vaclav Havel's "The Power Of The Powerless", will it get at least 125 likes?

    72%
    chance
    M$ 580 pool

    17. Will the Dow be above $37.5k at the end of 2022?

    44%
    chance
    M$ 172 pool

    Will Russian forces reach and begin a siege of city of Dnipro by the end of March?

    85%
    chance
    M$ 639 pool

    Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?

    64%
    chance
    M$ 100 pool

    Will the full Edmonton Marathon take place in August 2022?

    65%
    chance
    M$ 100 pool

    Where will the S&P 500 close on July 31, 2022?

    M$ 100 pool

    Will Manifold Markets have >=1k DAUs on any day in March?

    30%
    chance
    M$ 305 pool

    Will Joe Biden resign in his first term?

    6%
    chance
    M$ 90 pool

    Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed by the US Senate to become a supreme court justice?

    88%
    chance
    M$ 70 pool

    How many factual errors will be found in my Manifold FAQ?

    20%
    chance
    M$ 733 pool

    Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?

    51%
    chance
    M$ 86 pool

    Which answer to this question will rank second?

    M$ 905 pool

    If I review Edward Teach's "Penelope's Dream Of Twenty Geese", will it get at least 125 likes?

    61%
    chance
    M$ 940 pool

    Will martial law be declared in Russia by April 1st?

    28%
    chance
    M$ 93 pool

    Will the Canada and US borders accept the Covid test in the description?

    97%
    chance
    M$ 3,961 pool

    If I review Bruce Fink's "A Clinical Introduction To Lacanian Psychoanalysis", will it get at least 125 likes?

    79%
    chance
    M$ 347 pool

    Will Sweden be an official member of NATO by 2025?

    70%
    chance
    M$ 540 pool

    Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?

    3%
    chance
    M$ 623 pool

    Will the US militarily engage Russia by July 1st 2022?

    4%
    chance
    M$ 2,913 pool

    Will Putin be overthrown during 2022?

    29%
    chance
    M$ 272 pool

    Will John Beshir still hold the Top Trader leaderboard position on March 31st at 23:59:59 UTC time.

    39%
    chance
    M$ 31 pool

    Will real money prediction markets become legal in the US by 2025?

    7%
    chance
    M$ 713 pool

    Will Starship reach orbit by the end of 2022?

    69%
    chance
    M$ 70 pool

    Will the humanitarian corridor ceasefire break down again?

    90%
    chance
    M$ 331 pool

    Will Truth Social reach the top ten free apps in the iOS app store in March 2022?

    10%
    chance
    M$ 1,105 pool

    Will I release a substantive web3 (crypto) game in 30 days?

    42%
    chance
    M$ 279 pool

    Will a human step foot on Mars by 2035?

    51%
    chance
    M$ 147 pool

    What will the sum of the Top 20 traders' Total Profit be on March 13th, 2022?

    M$ 375 pool

    Will Vladimir Putin be assassinated by the end of 2022?

    16%
    chance
    M$ 556 pool

    How will Manifold loans work at the end of March?